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DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AAU1/...Department of Economics2/Quantitative Economics Division (QED)3/Team4/Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Martin Wagner

Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn. Martin Wagner

Profilbild
Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Martin Wagner
Function:
Deputy Head of Department
Phone:
+43 463 2700 4120
E-mail:
Martin [dot] Wagner [at] aau [dot] at
Room:
B02.2.68
Consultation hours:
Tuesday 16:30-17:30

Campus-Portal profile | Courses | Research

Curriculum Vitae

Books

Neusser, K. & Wagner, M. (2022), Zeitreihenanalyse in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften. Einführung und Grundlagen für den Einstieg in die aktuelle Forschung, 4th edition. Studienbücher Wirtschaftsmathematik. Springer Gabler: Berlin.

Conferences and Talks

16th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2022), London, UK
December 17-19, 2022, Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States
http://www.cfenetwork.org/CFE2022/

Center for Econometrics and Business Analytics Research Seminar, St. Petersburg, Russia
November 11, 2022, HAC Robust Estimation and Inference for Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships
https://ceba-lab.org/seminars/eng

Netzwerkstatt 2022 der Grünen Wirtschaft, Pörtschach, Austria
October 7, 2022, Talk and Panel Discussion
Die Inflation ist in aller Munde. Aber was bedeutet das für mein unternehmerisches Tun?

Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association 2022, Vienna, Austria
September 19-20, 2022, Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States
https://www.conftool.com/noeg-2022

Der Wei[s]e Salon, Vienna, Austria
July 4, 2022, Panel Discussion
Konsolidierung der Staatsschulden – Welche Reformen?

8th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE 2022), Gran Canaria, Spain
June 27-30, 2022, Plenary Speaker
HAC Robust Estimation and Inference for Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships
https://itise.ugr.es/plenarytalks.php

5th Vienna Workshop on High-Dimensional Time Series in Macroeconomics and Finance, Vienna, Austria
June 9-10, 2022, Co-Organizer and Session Chair
https://www.ihs.ac.at/de/events/conference-series/time-series-workshops/time-series-workshop-2021/

Symposium Aufsichtsrat und Abschlussprüfer – Gemeinsam für eine gute Corporate Governance, Vienna, Austria
May 30, 2022, Talk and Panel Discussion
Neues Wirtschaften nach (?) der Krise – Was braucht es jetzt?

Economics Research Seminar, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
May 24, 2022, HAC Robust Estimation and Inference for Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships
https://uni-graz.at/economics-research-seminar/

Lange Nacht der Forschung 2022, Klagenfurt, Austria
May 20, 2022, Umwelt, Klima und Wirtschaft – Kann der Umbau der Weltwirtschaft in Richtung Klimaneutralität gelingen?
https://www.aau.at/blog/lange-nacht-der-forschung-zum-volkswirtn/

Tagung des Ausschuss für Ökonometrie des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Hegne, Germany
April 7-9, 2022, Testing Linear Cointegration Against Smooth Transition Cointegration

15th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2021), London, UK
December 18-20, 2021, Localized Fully Modified OLS Estimation
http://www.cfenetwork.org/CFE2021/

7th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting (ITISE 2021), Gran Canaria, Spain
July 19-21, 2021, Plenary Speaker
Testing Linear Cointegration Against Smooth Transition Cointegration
https://itise.ugr.es/plenarytalks.php

Regional Procurement Conference 2021, Portorož, Slovenia
June 14-15, 2021, Speaker and Round Table Participant
Current Economic Trends and Outlook
https://www.procurement-conference.com/program/

Ninth Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE 2021), Cagliari, Italy
January 21-23, 2021, Testing Linear Cointegration Against Smooth Transition Cointegration
https://www.side-iea.it/events/conferences/iceee-2021
https://easychair.org/smart-program/ICEEE2021/2021-01-22.html#talk:163982

14th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2020), London, UK
December 19-21, 2020, Testing Linear Cointegration Against Smooth Transition Cointegration
http://www.cfenetwork.org/CFE2020/
http://www.cmstatistics.org/RegistrationsV2/CFE2020/viewSubmission.php?in=472&token=1rnro37o01oop36627p0304741r354o3

Regional Procurement Conference 2020, Portorož, Slovenia
November 19-20, 2020, Current Economic Situation and Outlook
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEHMm5n98uY&feature=youtu.be (from minute 10:05).

Digitale Lange Nacht der Forschung 2020, Klagenfurt, Austria
October 09, 2020, Die Weltwirtschaft auf der Intensivstation? Ein volkswirtschaftlicher (Aus-)Blick auf die COVID19 Pandemie
Martin Wagner, Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre am gleichnamigen Institut der Universität Klagenfurt, macht im Live-Vortrag verständlich, was die gegenwärtige (wirtschaftliche) Krisensituation ausmacht, und von welchen Faktoren es abhängt, dass Volkswirtschaften funktionsfähig bleiben.

Current Positions

Current positions:

10/2019 –   Full Professor of Economics, University of Klagenfurt

10/2019 –   Chief Economic Advisor to the Governor, Bank of Slovenia (part time)

2012      –   Visiting Professor, University of Ljubljana

10/2011   –   Senior Fellow of the Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna (Member of the Macroeconomics and Economic Policy Group)

Discussion papers

Wagner, M. (2023). Fully Modified Least Squares Estimation and Inference for Systems of Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions. IHS Working Paper Series 44.

Reichold, K., Wagner, M., Damjanović, M., & Drenkovska, M. (2022). Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States. IHS Working Paper Series 40.

Osbat, C., Sun, Y., & Wagner, M. (2021). Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper 2634.

Knorre, F., Wagner, M., & Grupe, M (2020). Monitoring cointegrating polynomial regressions: Theory and application to the environmental Kuznets curves for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions. IHS Working Paper Series 27.

Reynolds, J., Sögner, L., & Wagner, M. (2020). Deviations from triangular arbitrage parity in foreign exchange and Bitcoin markets. IHS Working Paper Series 17.

Reichold, K., & Wagner, M. (2018). Panel cointegrating polynomial regressions: Group-mean fully modified OLS estimation and inference. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 27/2018.

de Jong, R. M., & Wagner, M. (2018). Panel cointegrating polynomial regression analysis and the environmental Kuznets curve. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 22/2018.

Stypka, O., & Wagner, M. (2018). The Phillips unit root tests for polynomials of integrated processes. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 18/2018.

Reynolds, J., Sögner, L., Wagner, M., & Wied, D. (2018). Deviations from triangular arbitrage parity in foreign exchange and Bitcoin markets. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 9/2018.

Naevdal, E., & Wagner, M. (2017). The speed of transition revisited. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 10/2017.

Deistler, M., & Wagner, M. (2017). Cointegration in singular ARMA models. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 5/2017.

Stypka, O., Grabarczyk, P., Kawka, R., & Wagner, M. (2016). “Linear” fully modified OLS estimation of cointegrating polynomial regressions. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 77/2016.

Wagner, M., & Grabarczyk, P. (2016). The environmental Kuznets curve for carbon dioxide emissions: A seemingly unrelated cointegrating polynomial regressions approach. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 75/2016.

Frondel, M., Grabarczyk, P., & Wagner, M. (2016). Integrated modified OLS estimation for cointegrating polynomial regressions – With an application to the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 74/2016.

Frondel, M., Vance, C., & Wagner, M. (2016). Cycling on the extensive and intensive margin: The role of paths and prices. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 44/2016.

Linnemann, L., Uhrin, G., & Wagner, M. (2016). Government spending shocks and labor productivity. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 9/2016.

Wagner, M., & Wied, D. (2015). Monitoring stationarity and cointegration. Available at SSRN.

Vogelsang, T.J., & Wagner, M. (2014.) An integrated modified OLS RESET test for cointegrating regressions. SFB 823 Discussion Paper 37/2014.

Publications

2023

Wagner M., & Reichold K. (2023): Panel Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Group-Mean Fully Modified OLS Estimation and Inference. Econometric Reviews. Forthcoming.

2022

Wagner M. (2022): Residual Based Cointegration and Non-Cointegration Tests for Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions. Empirical Economics. doi: 10.1007/s00181-022-02332-3

de Jong, R., & Wagner M. (2022): Panel Cointegrating Polynomial Regression Analysis and an Illustration with the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Econometrics and Statistics. doi: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2022.03.005

2021

Reynolds, J., Sögner, L., & Wagner M. (2021): Deviations from triangular arbitrage parity in foreign exchange and Bitcoin markets. Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 13(2), 105-146. doi:10.24425/cejeme.2021.137358

Knorre, F., Wagner, M., & Grupe,  M.  (2021): Monitoring cointegrating polynomial regressions: theory and application to the environmental Kuznets curves for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions. Econometrics, 9(1), 12. doi:10.3390/econometrics9010012

2020

Bauer, D.,  Matuschek, L., de Matos Ribeiro, P., & Wagner, M. (2020): A parameterization of models for unit root processes: structure theory with and hypothesis testing. Econometrics, 8(4), 42. doi:10.3390/econometrics8040042

Wagner, M., Grabarczyk, P., & Hong, S. H. (2020). Fully modified OLS estimation and inference for seemingly unrelated cointegrating polynomial regressions and the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon dioxide emissions. Journal of Econometrics, 214(1), 216–255. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.012

Kunst, R. M., & Wagner, M. (2020). Economic forecasting: editors’ introduction. Special Volume on Economic Forecasting. Empirical Economics, 58, 1-5. doi./10.1007/s00181-019-01820-3

2019

Stypka, O., & Wagner, M. (2019). The Phillips unit root tests for polynomials of integrated processes revisited. Economics Letters, 176, 109–113. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.033

Wagner, M., Grabarczyk, P., & Hong, S. H. (2019). Fully modified OLS estimation and inference for seemingly unrelated cointegrating polynomial regressions and the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon dioxide emissions. Journal of Econometrics, 214(1), 216-255. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.012

Wagner, M., & Zeileis, A. (2019). Heterogeneity and spatial dependence of regional growth in the EU: a recursive partitioning approach. German Economic Review, 20(1), 67–82. doi:10.1111/geer.12146

2018

Grabarczyk, P., Wagner, M., Frondel, M., & Sommer, S. (2018). A cointegrating polynomial regression analysis of the material Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Resources Policy, 57, 236–245. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.03.009

2017

Deistler, M., & Wagner, M. (2017). Cointegration in singular ARMA models. Economics Letters, 155, 39–42. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2017.03.001

Wagner, M., & Wied, D. (2017). Consistent monitoring of cointegrating relationships: the US housing market and the subprime crisis. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 38(6), 960–980. doi:10.1111/jtsa.12247

2016

Wagner, M., & Hlouskova, J. (2016). Growth regressions, principal components augmented regressions and frequentist model averaging. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 235(6), 642–662. doi:10.1515/jbnst-2015-0608

Wagner, M., & Hong, S. H. (2016). Cointegrating polynomial regressions: fully modified OLS estimation and inference. Econometric Theory, 32(5), 1289–1315. doi:10.1017/s0266466615000213

2015

Aschersleben, P., Wagner, M., & Wied, D. (2015). Monitoring Euro area real exchange rates. In A. Steland, E. Rafajłowicz, & K. Szajowski (Eds.), Stochastic models, statistics and their applications: Wroclaw, Poland, February 2015 (pp. 363–370). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-13881-7_40

Pedroni, P. L., Vogelsang, T. J., Wagner, M., & Westerlund, J. (2015). Nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels. Journal of Econometrics, 185(2), 378–391. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.08.013

Wagner, M. (2015). The environmental Kuznets curve, cointegration and nonlinearity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6), 948–967. doi:10.1002/jae.2421

2014

Vogelsang, T. J., & Wagner, M. (2014). Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions. Journal of Econometrics, 178(2), 741–760. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.10.015

2013

Hlouskova, J., & Wagner, M. (2013). The determinants of long-run economic growth: a conceptually and computationally simple approach. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149(4), 445–492. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2013-iv-2.html

Vogelsang, T. J., & Wagner, M. (2013). A fixed-b perspective on the Phillips-Perron unit root tests. Econometric Theory, 29(03), 609–628. doi:10.1017/s0266466612000485

2012

Bauer, D., & Wagner, M. (2012). A state space canonical form for unit root processes. Econometric Theory, 28(6), 1313–1349. doi:10.1017/s026646661200014x

Schneider, U., & Wagner, M. (2012). Catching growth determinants with the adaptive Lasso. German Economic Review, 13(1), 71–85. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0475.2011.00541.x

Wagner, M. (2012). The Phillips unit root tests for polynomials of integrated processes. Economics Letters, 114(3), 299–303. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.006

2010

Wagner, M. (2010). Cointegration analysis with state space models. Advances in Statistical Analysis, 94(3), 273–305. doi:10.1007/s10182-010-0138-x

Wagner, M., & Hlouskova, J. (2010). The performance of panel cointegration methods: results from a large scale simulation study. Econometric Reviews, 29(2), 182–223. doi:10.1080/07474930903382182

2009

Banerjee, A., & Wagner, M. (2009). Panel methods to test for unit roots and cointegration. In T. C. Mills & K. Patterson (Eds.), Applied Econometrics (pp. 632–726). doi:10.1057/9780230244405_13

Bauer, D., & Wagner, M. (2009). Using subspace algorithm cointegration analysis: simulation performance and application to the term structure. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 53(6), 1954–1973. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2008.10.039

Hlouskova, J., Schmidheiny, K., & Wagner, M. (2009). Multistep predictions for multivariate GARCH models: closed form solution and the value for portfolio management. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(2), 330–336. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2008.09.002

Hlouskova, J., & Wagner, M. (2009). Finite sample correction factors for panel cointegration tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(6), 851–881. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00559.x

Other publications

Osbat, C., Sun, Y., & Wagner, M. (2022). Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area. SUERF Policy Brief 347.

Kimmich, C., König, T., Laa, E., Lappöhn, S., & Wagner, M. (2022). Energiewende beschleunigen? Engpässe berücksichtigen! IHS Policy Brief 7/2022.

Kimmich, C., Koch, S., König, T., Lappöhn, S., Schnabl, A., Wagner, M., Weyerstraß, K., & Zenz, H. (2022). Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Kriegs in der Ukraine und der Sanktionen gegen Russland. IHS Policy Brief 2/2022.

Kluge, J.,  Lappöhn, S., Plank, K., Schnabl, A., Wagner, M., Weyerstraß, K., Wimmer L., & Zenz, H. (2021). Austria’s Competitiveness and Its Determinants. Concepts, Developments, Relative Performance and Policy Options. OeNB Project No. 17686, Final report.

Research (Downloads)

On this page we present code and tables for the papers listed below. We do not assume any liability for results obtained using this material. In case you use the code or the tables, please cite the corresponding article

  • Knorre, F., Wagner, M., & Grupe, M. Monitoring cointegrating polynomial regressions: Theory and application to the environmental Kuznets curves for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions.
    • Supplementary Appendices B, C and D (pdf)
    • Tables (pdf)
    • Matlab-Code (zip, 1220 KB)
  • Vogelsang, J., & Wagner, M. Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 178 no. 2, pages 741-760, 2014. [DOI]
    • Tables(pdf)
    • Matlab-Code (zip, 346 KB)
  • Vogelsang, J., & Wagner, M. A fixed-b perspective on the Phillips-Perron tests. Econometric Theory, vol. 29 no. 3, pages 609-628, 2013. [DOI]
    • Tables (pdf)
    • Matlab-Code (zip, 430 KB)
  • Vogelsang, J., & Wagner, M. An integrated modified OLS RESET test for cointegrating regressions. Submitted. [DOI]
    • Tables (pdf)
    • Matlab-Code (zip, 550 KB)
  • Wagner, M., & Wied, D. Monitoring stationarity and cointegration. Diskussionspapier. [DOI]
    • Tables (pdf)
    • R-Paket via CRAN/ R-Paket via GitHub
  • Aschersleben, P., & Wagner, M. cointReg: parameter estimation and inference in a cointegrating regression.
    • R-Paket via CRAN/ R-Paket via GitHub
  • Wagner, M.,  Zeileis, A., & Bivand, R. lagsarlmtree: spatial lag model trees.
    • R-Paket via CRAN
  • Wagner, M. Residual based cointegration and non-cointegration tests for cointegrating polynomial regressions.
    • Tables (pdf)
    • Matlab-Code (zip, 60 KB)

Projects

Project leader of the project “GLASS – Global Augmented State Space Error Correction Model”. Funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF). [Volume: approx. 227.000€, funding period September 2022 – August 2025]

Project leader of the project “Instability and Nonlinearity of Long-Run Money Demand: Econometric Theory and Empirical Analysis”. Funded by the Anniversary Fund of Oesterreichische Nationalbank. [Volume: 249.000€, funding period July 2022 – December 2025]

Project leader in projects A3 (Dynamic Modelling of Production Technologies; Co-PI with Christoph Schmidt and Manuel Frondel) and A4 (Factor Allocation and Pricing with Aggregate Risks on Financial Markets; Co-PI with Ludger Linnemann) in the Collaborative Research Center (Sonderforschungsbereich) 823. Funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/German Science Foundation. [Volume of subprojects: approx. 400.000€ for second funding period July 2013 – June 2017; approx. 500.000€ for the third funding period July 2017 – June 2021]

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Research areas / ÖSTAT - Subject areas
  • Data science
  • Econometrics
  • Economics
  • Economic statistics
  • Macroeconomics
  • Mathematical statistics

  • Department of Economics
    • Latest tweet
    • Quantitative Economics Division (QED)
      • Team
        • Blüschke Dmitri
        • Kheifets Igor
        • Konstantopoulos Alexandros
        • Kopetzky Christina
        • Scholz Michael
        • Veldhuis Sebastian
        • Wagner Martin
        • Zwatz Christian
      • Research Projects
        • GLASS – Global Augmented State Space Error Correction Model (FWF Project No. I-5571)
        • Instability and Nonlinearity of Long-Run Money Demand: Econometric Theory and Empirical Analysis (OeNB Project No. 18692)
        • Public Spending and Fiscal Multipliers Under Various Policy Mixes (FWF Project No. I-2764)
        • Optimal Control of Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models (FWF Project No. T1012-GBL)
        • Österreichs Nationalökonom/inn/en und der Nationalsozialismus (OeNB Project No. 16755)
      • Econometrics (MDPI Journal)
      • German Economic Review
    • Microeconomics and Game Theory (MGT)
      • Team
        • Salim Claudia
        • Schweinzer Paul
        • Wohlgemuth Norbert
      • Research Projects
        • A theory of entrepreneurship (FWF- Project No. P31248-G27)
        • Systematic errors in team selection problems (OeNB-Project No. 17663)
      • Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design
    • Study
    • 3rd Summer School on Modern Topics in Time Series Analysis
    • The Karl Popper Kolleg
    • Cooperations

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Essential Cookies & Cookie Notice

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Datenschutzerklärung der Universität Klagenfurt
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