Invited Talk: The Beauty and the Terror of Predictive Business Analytics

Prof. Matthew C. Harding (University of California Irvine) holds a talk on “The Beauty and the Terror of Predictive Business Analytics” on Thu. January 26, 2023 at 4:00pm in HS 1. Guests welcome!

Abstract

Big data in conjunction with artificial intelligence and machine learning are revolutionizing the potential and risk of predictive business analytics. Firms have extensive records on customer and employee behavior. While on the one hand this allows firms to deliver an increasingly sophisticated product offering that is customized to individual needs and preferences, it also has the potential to extract private information that a customer may prefer not to share. Similarly, firms now have the potential to use algorithms to replace workers in certain domains. It is thus more important than ever to engage with the opportunities presented by these new technologies while also managing and regulating the risks associated with them. We will explore three examples. First, we will see how fine grained data on household energy consumption can help us design more successful energy efficiency programs. Then, we will investigate whether algorithms can replace bank managers. And, lastly, we will see how consumer credit data can predict mortality.

The presentation will be followed by a discussion moderated by Martin Wagner who will share some of his experiences with big data in a central bank context. We want to discuss the implications of big data and business analytics for education, research, firms and organizations.

 

Matthew C. Harding

Matthew is an econometrician and data scientist who develops techniques at the intersection of machine learning and econometrics to answer big data questions related to individual consumption and investment decisions in areas such as health, energy, and consumer finance. He often focuses on the analysis of “deep data”, large and information-rich data sets derived from many seemingly unrelated sources but linked across individuals to provide novel behavioral insights. He is particularly interested in the role of technology and automation to induce behavior change and help individuals live happier and more sustainable lives. At the same time his research emphasizes solutions for achieving triple-win strategies. These are solutions that not only benefit individual consumers, but are profitable for firms, and have a large positive impact on society at large.

Matthew has a BA from University College London (2000), an MPhil from the University of Oxford (2002) and a PhD from MIT (2007). Prior to joining UC Irvine, where he leads the Deep Data Lab, he has been Associate Professor at Duke University (2014-2016) and Assistant Professor at Stanford University (2007-2014).

3rd QED Workshop 2023

The 3rd Quantitative Economics Workshop 2023 takes place on Tue., January 24, 2023 at 2:30pm in room B02.2.13. Follow-up on the presentation by Christian Zwatz Large Sample Robust Inference in the Generalized Linear Regression Model“.

Guests welcome!

New Paper by Martin Wagner Published in Empirical Economics

Martin Wagner’s paper “Residual-based cointegration and non-cointegration tests for cointegrating polynomial regressions” has been published in Empirical Economics.

Invited Talk: Digital Product Innovation and Global Value Chains: An Agent-Based Analysis

Prof. Herbert Dawid (Bielefeld University) holds a talk on “Digital Product Innovation and Global Value Chains: An Agent-Based Analysis” on Mon. 23 January 2023 at 9:00am in room Z.1.09 (Main Building). Guests welcome!

We study the impact of digitization in the form of product innovation on the location of economic activities and value extraction on global supply chains and its effects on industry dynamics such as factor compensation. We develop a novel two-region agent-based model consisting of two traditional manufacturing sectors (upstream and downstream), an emerging digital goods sector and a service sector to account for structural change. In the wake of digitization final good producers incorporate digital components into their products, thereby increasing the product quality. We show that the region, where prior to digitization final good producers offer lower quality goods and are less competitive, is more likely to become dominant in the emerging digital goods sector. Whether digitization also results in a catch-up of the weaker region in the final goods sector depends crucially on the degree of complementarity between conventional and digital components in determining product quality. Furthermore, we analyze the implications of digitization on wage inequality within and between regions.